On the following morning, news arrived of the election results: Incredibly, Truman had won! (Polls which canvased opinion by telephone, then a costly amenity, naturally suffered from adverse selection and yielded inaccurate results.)
Eventually, the Deweys sat down for breakfast: "Tell me, Tom," Mrs. Dewey said with a smile, "am I going to Washington or is Harry coming here?"
[Truman's victory was such a surprise that the Chicago Tribune, having printed a premature "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" headline, was forced to race back to the presses.]
["Decision markets" like Iowa Electronic Markets (which allows speculators to trade 'shares' reflecting a candidate's popularity) and the Hollywood Stock Exchange (which allows people to speculate on box-office returns, opening-weekend performance, and the Oscars) routinely outperform major national polls. Hewlett-Packard has even used such a market to make sales forecasts: Essentially, HP employees bought and sold shares based on their monthly forecasts. Over three years, the markets outperformed the company's official forecasts seventy-five per cent of the time.]